Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beagle wins 57.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.9% vs Carrick 49.5% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 64.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 64.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 61.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Beagle
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Beagle
Carrick
Last 5: Beagle 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Beagle
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Beagle
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Beagle
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (353)
48.9% (352)
+8.3%
Power Play
87.5% (16)
81.3% (16)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (95)
42.2% (45)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Beagle is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Beagle shoots right. Carrick is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Beagle
Carrick
Home
62.0% (200)
46.9% (192)
Away
53.4% (264)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Beagle
Carrick
P1
55.8%
48.1%
P2
60.1%
50.0%
P3
54.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.6%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
57.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |