Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Komarov on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Komarov wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Komarov 45.2% vs Carrick 48.3% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 64.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 57.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 51.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Komarov
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Komarov
Carrick
Last 5: Komarov 3-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Komarov
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Komarov
3
1
Komarov
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Komarov
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (70)
46.7% (60)
-3.8%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
42.9% (7)
-42.9%
Penalty Kill
26.7% (15)
40.0% (5)
-13.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Komarov is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (25).
Komarov shoots left. Carrick is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (47).
Home / Away
Komarov
Carrick
Home
40.0% (40)
46.2% (13)
Away
39.1% (46)
45.8% (59)
By Period
Komarov
Carrick
P1
36.1%
52.6%
P2
46.2%
45.8%
P3
37.5%
41.4%
Final 5 min
22.7%
12.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
39.5%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |