Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Talbot on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Talbot wins 43.5% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Talbot 45.1% vs Gagner 47.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 80.0%
Defensive zone
Talbot 65.0%
Neutral zone
Gagner 53.0%
Result
Max Talbot favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Talbot
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Talbot
Gagner
Last 5: Talbot 3-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Talbot
2
1
Talbot
Gagner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Talbot
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Talbot
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (450)
47.6% (599)
-2.5%
Power Play
50.0% (20)
47.7% (86)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (163)
60.0% (5)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Gagner has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Talbot is 43.5% vs right-shot opponents (207).
Talbot shoots left. Gagner is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Talbot
Gagner
Home
47.8% (295)
49.5% (331)
Away
41.4% (345)
45.9% (370)
By Period
Talbot
Gagner
P1
47.0%
47.7%
P2
41.5%
43.9%
P3
44.5%
51.8%
OT
44.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Talbot
46.0%▲
43.5%
44.4%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Feb 23, 2012 | 2 | 18:24 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Feb 23, 2012 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 23, 2012 | 2 | 02:15 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Feb 23, 2012 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |