Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 46.8%). Look for Grigorenko on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grigorenko 47.1% vs Gagner 47.2% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 74.3%
Defensive zone
Grigorenko 74.3%
Neutral zone
Grigorenko 53.2%
Result
Mikhail Grigorenko favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Grigorenko
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Grigorenko
Gagner
Last 6: Grigorenko 4-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Grigorenko
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Grigorenko
1
0
Grigorenko
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Grigorenko
3
1
Grigorenko
Gagner
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grigorenko
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
44.5% (301)
45.6% (651)
-1.1%
Power Play
63.0% (27)
53.8% (119)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
0.0% (1)
+66.7%
On penalty kill, Grigorenko has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Grigorenko is 48.2% vs right-shot opponents (137).
Grigorenko shoots left. Gagner is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Home / Away
Grigorenko
Gagner
Home
52.5% (141)
47.1% (367)
Away
41.6% (190)
46.5% (404)
By Period
Grigorenko
Gagner
P1
45.8%
49.6%
P2
43.0%
47.9%
P3
50.0%
43.4%
Final 5 min
44.6%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grigorenko
54.0%▼
55.5%
46.2%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2015 | 1 | 04:08 | Neutral | Mikhail Grigorenko |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 1 | 03:56 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 30, 2015 | 1 | 01:17 | Neutral | Mikhail Grigorenko |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 16:23 | Neutral | Mikhail Grigorenko |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Mikhail Grigorenko |
| Mar 26, 2015 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |