Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Gaustad wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 55.9% vs Gagner 47.2% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 78.4%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 96.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 85.0%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Gaustad
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Gaustad
Gagner
Last 9: Gaustad 7-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Gaustad
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
0
Gaustad
Gagner
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaustad
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (821)
45.6% (651)
+12.1%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
53.8% (119)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
52.3% (260)
0.0% (1)
+52.3%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +52.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Gaustad is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Gaustad shoots left. Gagner is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Gagner
Home
58.9% (577)
47.1% (367)
Away
53.7% (520)
46.5% (404)
By Period
Gaustad
Gagner
P1
53.1%
49.6%
P2
57.9%
47.9%
P3
57.8%
43.4%
OT
60.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
60.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 12:45 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |