Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 36.7% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 44.9% vs Lafferty 43.5% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 72.0%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 64.5%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 54.1%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Smith
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Smith
Lafferty
Last 6: Smith 1-5 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
3
Smith
Lafferty
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
2
Smith
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (92)
40.9% (232)
-1.8%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
100.0% (1)
-50.0%
On power play, Lafferty has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Smith is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (30).
Smith shoots right. Lafferty is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Home / Away
Smith
Lafferty
Home
31.3% (48)
38.2% (123)
Away
47.9% (48)
43.6% (140)
By Period
Smith
Lafferty
P1
28.0%
41.6%
P2
51.7%
36.7%
P3
38.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
42.1%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
42.0%▲
40.5%
39.6%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
41.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 12:43 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 09:16 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | Nate Smith |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |