Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Helenius shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Helenius 47.4% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 77.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 59.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Sturm
Helenius
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Sturm
Helenius
Last 7: Sturm 4-3 Helenius
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Helenius
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Helenius
0
1
Sturm
Helenius
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Helenius
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Helenius
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
46.7% (197)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
25.0% (4)
+29.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Helenius shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Helenius is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (145).
Home / Away
Sturm
Helenius
Home
53.0% (168)
48.0% (98)
Away
56.0% (193)
44.2% (104)
By Period
Sturm
Helenius
P1
58.2%
51.4%
P2
53.2%
37.9%
P3
52.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
55.7%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Helenius
48.0%▲
46.0%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 09:41 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 09:20 | Neutral | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 05:55 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:17 | Offensive | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:09 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Samuel Helenius |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |