Scouting Report
Samuel Pahlsson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 48.5% vs Pahlsson 52.4% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ellis 58.1%
Defensive zone
Pahlsson 89.4%
Neutral zone
Pahlsson 72.1%
Result
Samuel Pahlsson favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
Ellis
Pahlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Ellis
Pahlsson
Last 8: Ellis 5-3 Pahlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Pahlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Pahlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
3
1
Ellis
Pahlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Pahlsson
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (223)
54.3% (782)
-6.3%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
62.5% (16)
-62.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
45.8% (216)
+4.2%
On power play, Pahlsson has a +62.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pahlsson shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (161).
Ellis shoots left. Pahlsson is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (686).
Home / Away
Ellis
Pahlsson
Home
51.4% (107)
51.8% (508)
Away
45.3% (137)
53.5% (518)
By Period
Ellis
Pahlsson
P1
46.7%
52.8%
P2
47.3%
52.1%
P3
50.8%
53.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Pahlsson
54.0%▼
59.0%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 19:41 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 02:04 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 01:29 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 12:10 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 08:45 | Offensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Samuel Pahlsson |