Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.4% vs 49.6%). Look for Backstrom on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Backstrom wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backstrom 50.3% vs Kuraly 49.7% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backstrom 82.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 81.4%
Neutral zone
Backstrom 50.1%
Result
Nicklas Backstrom favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
Backstrom
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Backstrom
Kuraly
Last 7: Backstrom 5-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backstrom
3
0
Backstrom
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Backstrom
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backstrom
2
1
Backstrom
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backstrom
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (473)
49.2% (901)
+2.2%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
68.2% (22)
-28.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
49.8% (219)
-16.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +28.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Backstrom is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (342).
Backstrom shoots left. Kuraly is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Backstrom
Kuraly
Home
53.6% (278)
51.7% (603)
Away
46.6% (236)
47.3% (539)
By Period
Backstrom
Kuraly
P1
51.5%
50.9%
P2
56.0%
49.5%
P3
43.5%
49.1%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backstrom
50.0%▲
48.5%
50.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2023 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 12:05 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 05:32 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Nicklas Backstrom |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicklas Backstrom |