Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Johnston 48.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 69.3%
Defensive zone
Johnston 67.9%
Neutral zone
Johnston 69.3%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 68.9%
31.1%
68.9%
Monahan
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Monahan
Johnston
Last 10: Monahan 3-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Monahan
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
3
Monahan
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Monahan
Johnston
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (823)
47.8% (623)
+5.4%
Power Play
55.3% (159)
50.8% (63)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (95)
51.4% (35)
-3.0%
On even strength, Monahan has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Monahan shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Monahan
Johnston
Home
54.6% (529)
47.6% (351)
Away
51.6% (548)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Monahan
Johnston
P1
49.0%
49.6%
P2
55.4%
47.3%
P3
53.6%
48.0%
OT
61.9%
46.7%
Final 5 min
54.0%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 15:44 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |