Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Boyle on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Boyle wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boyle 46.2% vs Aho 52.2% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 92.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 61.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 70.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Boyle
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Boyle
Aho
Last 5: Boyle 4-1 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Boyle
3
1
Boyle
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Boyle
1
0
Boyle
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boyle
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (290)
51.6% (819)
-4.0%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
58.4% (173)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
35.2% (71)
46.3% (67)
-11.1%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Boyle is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Boyle shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Boyle
Aho
Home
44.2% (199)
53.9% (568)
Away
46.4% (166)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Boyle
Aho
P1
48.6%
55.4%
P2
40.4%
51.2%
P3
46.4%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
41.6%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boyle
40.0%▼
42.0%
45.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2022 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Brian Boyle |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 06:07 | Defensive | Brian Boyle |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Brian Boyle |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Brian Boyle |