Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Barron wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 47.1% vs Aho 50.0% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 89.8%
Defensive zone
Barron 76.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 70.0%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Barron
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Barron
Aho
Last 8: Barron 6-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Barron
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
5
0
Barron
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barron
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (371)
49.9% (851)
-1.1%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
53.5% (144)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (174)
43.3% (60)
-1.3%
On power play, Aho has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Barron is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Barron shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Barron
Aho
Home
44.9% (283)
53.2% (554)
Away
48.3% (265)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Barron
Aho
P1
44.8%
49.1%
P2
50.7%
50.8%
P3
43.6%
49.7%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
44.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
46.5%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:24 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 17:08 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:22 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 1 | 06:50 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |