Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Wilson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.4% vs Wilson 49.6% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wilson 51.5%
Defensive zone
Wilson 68.5%
Neutral zone
Wilson 54.3%
Result
Tom Wilson favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Aho
Wilson
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Aho
Wilson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
0
1
Aho
Wilson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wilson
0
2
Aho
Wilson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Wilson
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (647)
55.6% (9)
-5.1%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
42.9% (7)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
38.1% (42)
45.5% (11)
-7.4%
On power play, Aho has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wilson shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Aho shoots left. Wilson is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (24).
Home / Away
Aho
Wilson
Home
53.9% (445)
30.0% (10)
Away
46.4% (375)
58.8% (17)
By Period
Aho
Wilson
P1
48.7%
45.5%
P2
51.4%
60.0%
P3
50.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.5%
80.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Wilson
40.0%▬
39.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:31 | Offensive | Tom Wilson |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tom Wilson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:58 | Defensive | Tom Wilson |