Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 52.3% vs Horcoff 49.2% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.8%
Defensive zone
Horcoff 58.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.0%
Result
Shawn Horcoff favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Last 7: O'Reilly 3-4 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Horcoff
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Horcoff
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
2
O'Reilly
Horcoff
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (392)
46.9% (318)
+6.7%
Power Play
47.2% (36)
64.9% (94)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (28)
39.8% (88)
+10.2%
On power play, Horcoff has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (314).
O'Reilly shoots left. Horcoff is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Horcoff
Home
54.4% (237)
46.7% (289)
Away
51.1% (219)
52.1% (211)
By Period
O'Reilly
Horcoff
P1
50.3%
49.4%
P2
51.4%
47.0%
P3
55.7%
50.9%
OT
71.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
46.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 17:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 02:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 15:31 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:59 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:47 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |