Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Matthias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.1% vs Matthias 46.7% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 53.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Tavares
Matthias
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Tavares
Matthias
Last 8: Tavares 6-2 Matthias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Matthias
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthias
0
2
Tavares
Matthias
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Matthias
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Matthias
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,121)
47.2% (142)
+5.2%
Power Play
51.3% (304)
100.0% (2)
-48.7%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
34.9% (43)
+23.9%
On power play, Matthias has a +48.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthias shoots left. Tavares is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Tavares shoots left. Matthias is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Tavares
Matthias
Home
56.5% (731)
45.6% (57)
Away
47.8% (711)
44.6% (130)
By Period
Tavares
Matthias
P1
56.1%
54.3%
P2
50.3%
40.0%
P3
50.5%
40.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 19:32 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 14:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 04:22 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 22, 2015 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |