Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Weiss shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Weiss 51.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 87.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 89.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Pavelski
Weiss
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Pavelski
Weiss
Last 9: Pavelski 7-2 Weiss
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Weiss
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Weiss
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Weiss
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Weiss
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (849)
52.3% (308)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.0% (205)
42.9% (35)
+17.1%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (152)
57.1% (14)
-5.1%
On power play, Pavelski has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Weiss shoots left. Pavelski is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Pavelski shoots right. Weiss is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Weiss
Home
59.2% (622)
51.7% (172)
Away
52.6% (584)
51.4% (185)
By Period
Pavelski
Weiss
P1
54.1%
53.2%
P2
56.4%
53.2%
P3
56.4%
50.0%
OT
65.6%
16.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Weiss
46.0%▼
56.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2013 | OT | 01:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | OT | 01:34 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 3 | 04:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 2 | 17:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 2 | 17:12 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 2 | 15:00 | Offensive | Stephen Weiss |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 2 | 01:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Stephen Weiss |