Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 59.4% vs left-shot opponents — Begin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 57.2% vs Begin 49.3% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 58.3%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 89.8%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 83.0%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 81.4%
81.4%
18.6%
MacKenzie
Begin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
MacKenzie
Begin
Last 7: MacKenzie 5-2 Begin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Begin
0
1
MacKenzie
Begin
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Begin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Begin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Begin
Edge
Even Strength
61.0% (264)
52.6% (95)
+8.4%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
100.0% (1)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
28.6% (21)
+20.5%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Begin shoots left. MacKenzie is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (234).
MacKenzie shoots left. Begin is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Begin
Home
62.1% (145)
52.1% (48)
Away
57.3% (178)
46.4% (69)
By Period
MacKenzie
Begin
P1
51.6%
52.9%
P2
59.8%
40.0%
P3
65.8%
55.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
35.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
59.4%
Begin
56.0%▲
48.7%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2013 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 29, 2013 | 1 | 13:46 | Neutral | Steve Begin |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 3 | 15:25 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 2 | 14:31 | Offensive | Steve Begin |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 2 | 14:20 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 22, 2013 | 2 | 12:15 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |