Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.8% vs 52.2%). Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Komarov wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Komarov 51.9% vs Stamkos 52.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 78.3%
Defensive zone
Komarov 77.4%
Neutral zone
Komarov 60.1%
Result
Leo Komarov favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Komarov
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Komarov
Stamkos
Last 5: Komarov 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Komarov
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
1
0
Komarov
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Komarov
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Komarov
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (79)
51.4% (725)
-3.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
53.7% (123)
+46.3%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (132)
61.4% (44)
-6.1%
On power play, Komarov has a +46.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Komarov is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Komarov shoots left. Stamkos is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Komarov
Stamkos
Home
57.1% (105)
53.3% (426)
Away
48.6% (107)
51.3% (466)
By Period
Komarov
Stamkos
P1
54.4%
56.6%
P2
52.3%
48.2%
P3
53.1%
52.7%
OT
42.9%
42.9%
Final 5 min
64.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
52.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 26, 2018 | 1 | 05:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 12, 2018 | 2 | 13:22 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 12:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |