Scouting Report
Matt Hendricks holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hendricks wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hendricks 54.9% vs Stamkos 49.6% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 79.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 56.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Hendricks
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hendricks
Stamkos
Last 5: Hendricks 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hendricks
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Hendricks
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hendricks
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (197)
48.1% (669)
+7.2%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
58.2% (110)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
61.7% (60)
50.0% (40)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Hendricks has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hendricks is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Hendricks shoots left. Stamkos is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Hendricks
Stamkos
Home
55.3% (123)
52.0% (402)
Away
58.1% (136)
47.2% (417)
By Period
Hendricks
Stamkos
P1
58.7%
46.3%
P2
49.5%
52.4%
P3
63.2%
50.2%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hendricks
60.0%▲
50.5%
56.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 02:41 | Neutral | Matt Hendricks |
| Apr 7, 2013 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2013 | 2 | 17:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2013 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Matt Hendricks |