Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dwyer wins 35.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dwyer 38.5% vs Stamkos 46.8% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dwyer 76.4%
Defensive zone
Dwyer 74.2%
Neutral zone
Dwyer 79.3%
Result
Patrick Dwyer favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Dwyer
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Dwyer
Stamkos
Last 7: Dwyer 1-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Dwyer
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Dwyer
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Dwyer
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dwyer
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
34.8% (221)
46.0% (767)
-11.2%
Power Play
25.0% (8)
50.0% (126)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
46.2% (26)
-33.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dwyer is 35.3% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Dwyer shoots right. Stamkos is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Dwyer
Stamkos
Home
30.8% (91)
49.7% (441)
Away
35.4% (147)
43.6% (486)
By Period
Dwyer
Stamkos
P1
36.4%
43.7%
P2
30.4%
50.2%
P3
34.8%
45.1%
Final 5 min
35.6%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dwyer
30.0%▼
38.0%
33.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 1 | 01:31 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 25, 2011 | 1 | 17:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 15:57 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 20, 2010 | 1 | 19:59 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 20, 2010 | 1 | 15:52 | Neutral | Patrick Dwyer |