Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthias on neutral-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). Matthias wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthias 45.4% vs Stamkos 49.6% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Matthias leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 65.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 60.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 64.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
Matthias
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Matthias
Stamkos
Last 10: Matthias 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthias
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthias
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthias
5
4
Matthias
Stamkos
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthias
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (310)
48.1% (669)
-4.9%
Power Play
57.1% (21)
58.2% (110)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
50.0% (40)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Matthias is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (122).
Matthias shoots left. Stamkos is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Matthias
Stamkos
Home
40.7% (172)
52.0% (402)
Away
47.4% (175)
47.2% (417)
By Period
Matthias
Stamkos
P1
47.4%
46.3%
P2
46.0%
52.4%
P3
39.4%
50.2%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthias
40.0%▼
41.5%
44.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 18:00 | Defensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 2, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 07:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 03:25 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 06:31 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 00:13 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 04:22 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 04:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 01:36 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 2 | 01:14 | Neutral | Shawn Matthias |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Shawn Matthias |