Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stamkos wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 46.8% vs Smith 53.1% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.5%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 55.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 57.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Stamkos
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stamkos
Smith
Last 6: Stamkos 2-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Stamkos
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stamkos
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Stamkos
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (767)
58.1% (322)
-12.1%
Power Play
50.0% (126)
36.8% (19)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
32.6% (46)
+13.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stamkos is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Stamkos shoots right. Smith is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Smith
Home
49.7% (441)
58.8% (204)
Away
43.6% (486)
48.4% (184)
By Period
Stamkos
Smith
P1
43.7%
52.9%
P2
50.2%
56.3%
P3
45.1%
51.9%
OT
46.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
46.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2011 | 3 | 11:27 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 3 | 10:03 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2011 | 3 | 05:10 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Zack Smith |