Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Stamkos wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 45.8% vs Smith 49.0% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 22-12 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 77.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 56.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Stamkos
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
22
(34 meetings)
12
22
Stamkos
Smith
Last 10: Stamkos 2-8 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
7
6
Stamkos
Smith
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
6
Stamkos
Smith
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
2
10
Stamkos
Smith
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (1,055)
48.0% (761)
-2.4%
Power Play
46.6% (116)
70.4% (27)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (38)
49.5% (196)
-7.4%
On power play, Smith has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stamkos is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (890).
Stamkos shoots right. Smith is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Smith
Home
48.4% (636)
49.9% (523)
Away
42.3% (591)
47.8% (467)
By Period
Stamkos
Smith
P1
45.7%
47.5%
P2
46.8%
50.4%
P3
43.7%
48.4%
OT
48.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
47.6%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
45.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 05:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 6, 2012 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 3 | 14:10 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 1 | 07:37 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 01:14 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 5, 2012 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 5, 2011 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 5, 2011 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2011 | 3 | 12:27 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Dec 5, 2011 | 3 | 05:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2011 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Zack Smith |