Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stamkos wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 49.6% vs Smith 51.6% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 57.9%
Defensive zone
Smith 64.6%
Neutral zone
Smith 58.0%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Stamkos
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stamkos
Smith
Last 8: Stamkos 5-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Stamkos
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
0
Stamkos
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Stamkos
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (669)
52.6% (635)
-4.5%
Power Play
58.2% (110)
45.5% (44)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (40)
48.1% (52)
+1.9%
On power play, Stamkos has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stamkos is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Stamkos shoots right. Smith is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Smith
Home
52.0% (402)
53.4% (371)
Away
47.2% (417)
50.3% (360)
By Period
Stamkos
Smith
P1
46.3%
50.2%
P2
52.4%
52.2%
P3
50.2%
52.7%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.6%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2013 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 9, 2013 | 1 | 14:29 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 03:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 01:46 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 2 | 14:45 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 2 | 03:17 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 25, 2013 | 1 | 02:05 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |