Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kero on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kero shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Kero 45.4% (+18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kero 56.0%
Defensive zone
Kero 66.5%
Neutral zone
Kero 68.4%
Result
Tanner Kero favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Duchene
Kero
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Duchene
Kero
Last 6: Duchene 2-4 Kero
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Kero
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kero
0
3
Duchene
Kero
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kero
0
1
Duchene
Kero
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kero
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
45.9% (434)
+16.3%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
50.0% (2)
+17.3%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (143)
25.7% (35)
+33.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kero shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Duchene shoots left. Kero is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (301).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kero
Home
66.5% (555)
47.7% (214)
Away
58.6% (543)
41.6% (257)
By Period
Duchene
Kero
P1
63.2%
44.4%
P2
59.6%
48.5%
P3
65.0%
39.4%
Final 5 min
65.9%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
62.6%
Kero
62.0%▲
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Mar 19, 2017 | 3 | 18:37 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 3 | 10:25 | Defensive | Tanner Kero |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 05:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 3 | 05:42 | Neutral | Tanner Kero |