Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Vanek wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vanek 41.7% vs Novak 43.3% (-5.2%)
Offensive zone
Vanek 60.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 61.1%
Neutral zone
Vanek 50.8%
Result
Thomas Vanek favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Vanek
Novak
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vanek
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
37.7% (146)
42.1% (1,539)
-4.4%
Power Play
36.1% (61)
51.9% (133)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
50.0% (2)
+10.0%
On power play, Novak has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Vanek is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (145).
Vanek shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Vanek
Novak
Home
39.6% (111)
45.3% (814)
Away
35.6% (101)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Vanek
Novak
P1
32.1%
43.9%
P2
40.9%
42.8%
P3
40.0%
41.7%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
38.0%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vanek
28.0%▼
38.5%
37.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%