Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Adams wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Adams 46.4% vs Connolly 48.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 58.2%
Defensive zone
Adams 68.0%
Neutral zone
Adams 64.7%
Result
Craig Adams favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Adams
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Adams
Connolly
Last 5: Adams 1-4 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Adams
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
Adams
Connolly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Adams
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Adams
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (170)
47.8% (605)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (118)
55.1% (89)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Adams is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Adams shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Adams
Connolly
Home
45.8% (131)
51.1% (358)
Away
44.7% (161)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Adams
Connolly
P1
46.4%
48.7%
P2
48.2%
48.1%
P3
42.1%
50.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.8%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Adams
42.0%▼
45.0%
45.2%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2012 | 3 | 05:26 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Craig Adams |
| Mar 7, 2012 | 1 | 05:15 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 05:19 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |