Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 38.8% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 39.9% vs Connolly 46.3% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 57.0%
Defensive zone
Connolly 82.7%
Neutral zone
Connolly 72.5%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Stepan
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stepan
Connolly
Last 8: Stepan 5-3 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Connolly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Connolly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
3
Stepan
Connolly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
38.6% (630)
47.0% (702)
-8.4%
Power Play
45.3% (64)
49.7% (165)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
22.7% (22)
29.9% (97)
-7.2%
On even strength, Connolly has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Stepan is 38.8% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Stepan shoots right. Connolly is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Stepan
Connolly
Home
39.0% (364)
46.7% (512)
Away
38.0% (355)
45.1% (457)
By Period
Stepan
Connolly
P1
39.4%
46.5%
P2
40.6%
47.5%
P3
36.4%
44.0%
OT
12.5%
40.9%
Final 5 min
40.4%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2011 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 30, 2011 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 06:05 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 13:45 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 08:54 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |