Scouting Report
Drew Stafford holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stafford wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stafford 51.1% vs Connolly 48.9% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stafford 50.6%
Defensive zone
Connolly 69.4%
Neutral zone
Stafford 51.8%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Stafford
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Stafford
Connolly
Last 6: Stafford 3-3 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stafford
1
0
Stafford
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
3
Stafford
Connolly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stafford
1
0
Stafford
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stafford
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (58)
47.8% (605)
+5.6%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
51.2% (86)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
55.1% (89)
-38.4%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +38.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Stafford is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (24).
Stafford shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Stafford
Connolly
Home
58.7% (46)
51.1% (358)
Away
45.0% (40)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Stafford
Connolly
P1
42.3%
48.7%
P2
63.6%
48.1%
P3
43.5%
50.4%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.0%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stafford
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.3%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2012 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 3, 2012 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Drew Stafford |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Drew Stafford |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 05:07 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |