Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Smithson wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 56.8% vs Connolly 46.3% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 86.3%
Defensive zone
Smithson 56.1%
Neutral zone
Connolly 65.0%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 80.2%
19.8%
80.2%
Smithson
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Smithson
Connolly
Last 7: Smithson 2-5 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
5
Smithson
Connolly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smithson
2
0
Smithson
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (778)
47.0% (702)
+12.8%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
49.7% (165)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (198)
29.9% (97)
+19.1%
On penalty kill, Smithson has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Smithson is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Smithson shoots right. Connolly is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Home / Away
Smithson
Connolly
Home
59.2% (534)
46.7% (512)
Away
55.5% (472)
45.1% (457)
By Period
Smithson
Connolly
P1
56.1%
46.5%
P2
58.0%
47.5%
P3
58.6%
44.0%
OT
37.5%
40.9%
Final 5 min
58.9%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
57.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2011 | 3 | 18:37 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 2 | 17:22 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 20, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jerred Smithson |