Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Foligno wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Connolly 47.3% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 63.6%
Defensive zone
Foligno 58.3%
Neutral zone
Foligno 65.3%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Foligno
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
0
(8 meetings)
8
0
Foligno
Connolly
Last 8: Foligno 8-0 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
6
0
Foligno
Connolly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Connolly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,810)
47.4% (1,307)
+0.9%
Power Play
52.3% (730)
50.2% (251)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (455)
41.9% (186)
+2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Foligno is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,501).
Foligno shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Foligno
Connolly
Home
49.9% (2,013)
48.5% (870)
Away
47.2% (1,984)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Foligno
Connolly
P1
47.6%
47.4%
P2
50.4%
47.7%
P3
48.3%
47.0%
OT
29.7%
37.8%
Final 5 min
52.3%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 02:40 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 02:34 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 05:39 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 22, 2010 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |