Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 51.6% vs Connolly 46.3% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 89.4%
Defensive zone
Connolly 67.2%
Neutral zone
Connolly 77.6%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 81.2%
18.8%
81.2%
O'Reilly
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
O'Reilly
Connolly
Last 10: O'Reilly 2-8 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
6
O'Reilly
Connolly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
2
O'Reilly
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (770)
47.0% (702)
+6.4%
Power Play
55.6% (54)
49.7% (165)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (196)
29.9% (97)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. O'Reilly is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
O'Reilly shoots left. Connolly is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Connolly
Home
53.5% (533)
46.7% (512)
Away
50.0% (492)
45.1% (457)
By Period
O'Reilly
Connolly
P1
50.8%
46.5%
P2
52.4%
47.5%
P3
51.6%
44.0%
OT
66.7%
40.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2011 | OT | 00:47 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 14:30 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 14:25 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 11:09 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2011 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |