Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Gagner wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gagner 47.9% vs Connolly 48.9% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 50.1%
Defensive zone
Connolly 69.1%
Neutral zone
Connolly 53.2%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Gagner
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Gagner
Connolly
Last 5: Gagner 4-1 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gagner
Connolly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
3
0
Gagner
Connolly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gagner
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (599)
47.8% (605)
-0.2%
Power Play
47.7% (86)
51.2% (86)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
55.1% (89)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Gagner has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Gagner is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Gagner shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Gagner
Connolly
Home
49.5% (331)
51.1% (358)
Away
45.9% (370)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Gagner
Connolly
P1
47.7%
48.7%
P2
43.9%
48.1%
P3
51.8%
50.4%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.0%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
47.6%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2012 | OT | 01:01 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 6, 2012 | 1 | 05:09 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |