Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Connolly wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Connolly 46.3% vs Bozak 54.3% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Bozak leads 19-6 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 82.5%
Defensive zone
Connolly 92.4%
Neutral zone
Connolly 81.2%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 85.5%
85.5%
14.5%
Connolly
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
19
(25 meetings)
6
19
Connolly
Bozak
Last 10: Connolly 2-8 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
5
8
Connolly
Bozak
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
7
Connolly
Bozak
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
4
Connolly
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Connolly
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (702)
54.2% (962)
-7.2%
Power Play
49.7% (165)
57.9% (266)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
29.9% (97)
52.1% (188)
-22.2%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Connolly is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Connolly shoots right. Bozak is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Connolly
Bozak
Home
46.7% (512)
58.6% (732)
Away
45.1% (457)
50.5% (709)
By Period
Connolly
Bozak
P1
46.5%
54.1%
P2
47.5%
55.0%
P3
44.0%
54.1%
OT
40.9%
65.2%
Final 5 min
42.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2011 | 3 | 06:36 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 2 | 14:09 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 12, 2011 | 1 | 05:29 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 2 | 00:40 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 16:48 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 16:27 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 14:22 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 16, 2011 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 2 | 06:05 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 5, 2011 | 1 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 3 | 18:09 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 2 | 16:29 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 2 | 16:19 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 6, 2010 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |