Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Connolly 47.3% vs Seguin 53.6% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 56.8%
Defensive zone
Seguin 54.8%
Neutral zone
Seguin 52.2%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Connolly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Connolly
Seguin
Last 8: Connolly 4-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
4
Connolly
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
4
0
Connolly
Seguin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Connolly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,307)
53.7% (8,071)
-6.3%
Power Play
50.2% (251)
55.9% (810)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (186)
49.3% (762)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Connolly shoots right. Seguin is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Connolly
Seguin
Home
48.5% (870)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
45.9% (885)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Connolly
Seguin
P1
47.4%
52.8%
P2
47.7%
53.3%
P3
47.0%
54.7%
OT
37.8%
54.7%
Final 5 min
42.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2011 | 3 | 00:12 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 3, 2011 | 2 | 12:15 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 2 | 07:43 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 3 | 03:36 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 1 | 09:02 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |