Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Connolly wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Connolly 46.3% vs Seguin 49.6% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 51.5%
Defensive zone
Connolly 55.8%
Neutral zone
Connolly 52.5%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Connolly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Connolly
Seguin
Last 6: Connolly 3-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
3
Connolly
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Connolly
3
0
Connolly
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Connolly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (702)
48.9% (274)
-1.9%
Power Play
49.7% (165)
53.8% (26)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
29.9% (97)
50.0% (2)
-20.1%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Connolly is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Connolly shoots right. Seguin is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Home / Away
Connolly
Seguin
Home
46.7% (512)
53.5% (129)
Away
45.1% (457)
46.6% (174)
By Period
Connolly
Seguin
P1
46.5%
52.3%
P2
47.5%
48.1%
P3
44.0%
47.8%
OT
40.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
45.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2011 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 2 | 07:43 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 1, 2011 | 1 | 03:39 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 3 | 03:36 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 1 | 09:02 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |