Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Beagle wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.9%
Defensive zone
Beagle 84.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.3%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Beagle
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Beagle
Hertl
Last 7: Beagle 6-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Beagle
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
5
0
Beagle
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (353)
51.6% (1,084)
+5.6%
Power Play
87.5% (16)
61.0% (246)
+26.5%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (95)
44.1% (136)
+7.5%
On power play, Beagle has a +26.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Beagle is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Beagle shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Beagle
Hertl
Home
62.0% (200)
55.2% (696)
Away
53.4% (264)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Beagle
Hertl
P1
55.8%
55.4%
P2
60.1%
54.8%
P3
54.5%
48.9%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
63.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
57.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 16:33 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |