Scouting Report
Jordan Weal holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Weal on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Weal wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Weal 54.8% vs Hertl 51.4% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Weal 65.6%
Defensive zone
Weal 65.3%
Neutral zone
Weal 69.1%
Result
Jordan Weal favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Weal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Weal
Hertl
Last 5: Weal 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Weal
1
0
Weal
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Weal
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Weal
3
0
Weal
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Weal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (551)
51.7% (869)
+3.7%
Power Play
64.3% (42)
55.7% (176)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
44.9% (138)
-28.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Weal is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (397).
Weal shoots right. Hertl is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (480).
Home / Away
Weal
Hertl
Home
53.5% (269)
51.8% (583)
Away
57.3% (330)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Weal
Hertl
P1
60.9%
52.5%
P2
56.3%
50.9%
P3
49.5%
51.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Weal
54.0%▲
48.5%
55.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Jordan Weal |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Jordan Weal |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 15:18 | Neutral | Jordan Weal |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Jordan Weal |