Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kesler wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 57.0% vs Hertl 51.4% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 64.9%
Defensive zone
Kesler 87.3%
Neutral zone
Kesler 87.2%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 79.8%
79.8%
20.2%
Kesler
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Kesler
Hertl
Last 6: Kesler 6-0 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
0
Kesler
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
0
Kesler
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
0
Kesler
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.6% (1,225)
50.4% (367)
+7.2%
Power Play
63.5% (263)
64.6% (48)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (305)
49.2% (59)
+2.3%
On even strength, Kesler has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kesler is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,218).
Kesler shoots right. Hertl is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Kesler
Hertl
Home
59.1% (881)
50.9% (220)
Away
55.7% (912)
52.4% (254)
By Period
Kesler
Hertl
P1
56.6%
52.7%
P2
58.2%
52.8%
P3
57.5%
49.7%
OT
53.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
59.0%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2017 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |