Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.1% vs 53.5%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Hertl wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.1% vs Bozak 53.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.1%
Defensive zone
Bozak 51.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Hertl
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
16
(34 meetings)
18
16
Hertl
Bozak
Last 10: Hertl 5-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
4
Hertl
Bozak
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
7
8
Hertl
Bozak
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
3
4
Hertl
Bozak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,077)
53.7% (9,596)
-0.1%
Power Play
59.7% (1,916)
55.2% (1,990)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (793)
48.0% (1,094)
-2.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Hertl is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,031).
Hertl shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Hertl
Bozak
Home
55.6% (5,217)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
52.7% (5,569)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Hertl
Bozak
P1
53.6%
53.2%
P2
53.9%
52.8%
P3
55.1%
54.5%
OT
46.8%
52.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 18:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 13:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |