Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 55.0%). Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hertl wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.3% vs Bozak 54.3% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.6%
Defensive zone
Bozak 55.6%
Neutral zone
Bozak 51.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Hertl
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Hertl
Bozak
Last 9: Hertl 3-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
1
Hertl
Bozak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
4
Hertl
Bozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Hertl
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (570)
57.3% (483)
-2.6%
Power Play
55.2% (143)
57.5% (73)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (77)
42.3% (104)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Hertl is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Hertl shoots left. Bozak is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Hertl
Bozak
Home
56.2% (379)
57.8% (332)
Away
53.5% (411)
52.1% (328)
By Period
Hertl
Bozak
P1
53.4%
52.7%
P2
52.7%
55.6%
P3
57.6%
56.7%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:59 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |