Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Hertl wins 61.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hertl 54.7% vs Bozak 55.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.7%
Defensive zone
Bozak 56.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Hertl
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Hertl
Bozak
Last 9: Hertl 5-4 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
1
Hertl
Bozak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hertl
Bozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Hertl
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hertl
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (648)
58.3% (271)
-2.6%
Power Play
60.4% (149)
60.6% (33)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (83)
50.0% (78)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Hertl is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Hertl shoots left. Bozak is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (278).
Home / Away
Hertl
Bozak
Home
58.3% (391)
60.7% (206)
Away
52.8% (489)
52.3% (176)
By Period
Hertl
Bozak
P1
58.9%
57.3%
P2
51.5%
57.8%
P3
54.3%
56.2%
OT
76.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.2%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2021 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 3 | 15:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 20, 2021 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 12:06 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 13:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |