Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 53.4%). Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 52.9% vs Zajac 53.2% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zajac 63.6%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 56.6%
Neutral zone
Zajac 58.1%
Result
Travis Zajac favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
MacKenzie
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKenzie
Zajac
Last 5: MacKenzie 4-1 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Zajac
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
0
MacKenzie
Zajac
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (737)
53.6% (932)
+1.5%
Power Play
36.8% (19)
55.0% (129)
-18.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (266)
50.4% (139)
-1.5%
On power play, Zajac has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (360).
MacKenzie shoots left. Zajac is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (786).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Zajac
Home
54.9% (506)
55.8% (661)
Away
51.4% (516)
50.5% (539)
By Period
MacKenzie
Zajac
P1
54.5%
55.7%
P2
55.6%
50.0%
P3
48.2%
54.1%
OT
70.0%
63.6%
Final 5 min
53.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 3 | 15:14 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 05:06 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |