Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Zajac on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaustad wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 54.7% vs Zajac 51.4% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zajac 89.5%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 77.5%
Neutral zone
Zajac 58.9%
Result
Travis Zajac favored at 70.4%
29.6%
70.4%
Gaustad
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Gaustad
Zajac
Last 7: Gaustad 2-5 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zajac
0
5
Gaustad
Zajac
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
0
Gaustad
Zajac
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (603)
51.8% (986)
+4.4%
Power Play
71.4% (21)
61.1% (185)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (148)
42.1% (216)
+7.2%
On power play, Gaustad has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. Gaustad is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Gaustad shoots left. Zajac is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Zajac
Home
55.5% (366)
54.0% (672)
Away
55.2% (406)
49.2% (715)
By Period
Gaustad
Zajac
P1
55.0%
53.1%
P2
56.9%
52.2%
P3
53.7%
50.1%
OT
62.5%
38.5%
Final 5 min
55.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2016 | OT | 01:42 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 2 | 05:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 1 | 11:03 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 13, 2015 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |