Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 51.2% vs Smith 45.9% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 52.8%
Defensive zone
Smith 82.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 57.8%
Result
Trevor Smith favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Tavares
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Tavares
Smith
Last 5: Tavares 1-4 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
0
3
Tavares
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (1,232)
39.7% (68)
+11.8%
Power Play
51.1% (305)
66.7% (6)
-15.6%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (30)
25.0% (8)
+11.7%
On power play, Smith has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Tavares is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,084).
Tavares shoots left. Smith is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
Tavares
Smith
Home
52.8% (781)
50.0% (44)
Away
49.9% (804)
30.8% (39)
By Period
Tavares
Smith
P1
52.8%
41.9%
P2
52.1%
40.0%
P3
48.7%
40.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.3%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |