Scouting Report
Johan Larsson holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zegras on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larsson wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 46.9% vs Zegras 41.5% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 87.8%
Defensive zone
Larsson 59.1%
Neutral zone
Zegras 66.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Larsson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Larsson
Zegras
Last 5: Larsson 1-4 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
3
Larsson
Zegras
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
Larsson
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larsson
1
0
Larsson
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (345)
39.4% (510)
+7.3%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
47.1% (34)
+14.0%
On power play, Larsson has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Larsson is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Larsson shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Larsson
Zegras
Home
52.1% (167)
42.3% (272)
Away
42.4% (255)
37.5% (272)
By Period
Larsson
Zegras
P1
50.0%
37.6%
P2
46.7%
41.5%
P3
42.6%
40.8%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
46.2%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 08:35 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |