Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Zegras wins 39.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zegras 40.2% vs Bozak 53.4% (-13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 82.5%
Defensive zone
Bozak 51.5%
Neutral zone
Zegras 84.3%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Zegras
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Zegras
Bozak
Last 6: Zegras 1-5 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Zegras
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
4
Zegras
Bozak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zegras
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
39.5% (1,582)
53.7% (9,596)
-14.2%
Power Play
41.4% (133)
55.2% (1,990)
-13.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
48.0% (1,094)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Bozak has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Zegras is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (552).
Zegras shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Zegras
Bozak
Home
40.6% (833)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
38.7% (889)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Zegras
Bozak
P1
41.2%
53.2%
P2
39.1%
52.8%
P3
38.5%
54.5%
OT
35.3%
52.9%
Final 5 min
40.9%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.6%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 2 | 18:08 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 5, 2021 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 5, 2021 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |