Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 59.7% vs right-shot opponents — Brouwer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 59.5% vs Brouwer 47.6% (+13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 95.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 83.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 92.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Last 8: O'Reilly 7-1 Brouwer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Brouwer
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Brouwer
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Brouwer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Edge
Even Strength
60.3% (1,517)
46.5% (99)
+13.8%
Power Play
61.5% (387)
56.0% (25)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (220)
44.1% (93)
+10.9%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brouwer shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
O'Reilly shoots left. Brouwer is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Brouwer
Home
62.5% (1,143)
47.7% (111)
Away
57.1% (981)
45.3% (106)
By Period
O'Reilly
Brouwer
P1
56.8%
50.8%
P2
64.6%
50.0%
P3
58.5%
40.8%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Brouwer
38.0%▼
46.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2018 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2018 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | OT | 01:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | OT | 01:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 3 | 19:27 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2018 | 2 | 03:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |