Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKenzie wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 51.3% vs Bozak 48.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 62.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 76.6%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 72.3%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
MacKenzie
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
MacKenzie
Bozak
Last 6: MacKenzie 5-1 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
1
MacKenzie
Bozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (377)
48.8% (1,036)
+6.1%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
53.8% (225)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (109)
39.1% (138)
-0.6%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. MacKenzie is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (215).
MacKenzie shoots left. Bozak is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (916).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Bozak
Home
51.9% (237)
50.8% (608)
Away
51.2% (260)
47.0% (791)
By Period
MacKenzie
Bozak
P1
49.7%
48.0%
P2
50.6%
48.1%
P3
53.5%
49.8%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
51.5%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2014 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 3 | 01:48 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 2 | 08:14 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Oct 25, 2013 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |