Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 54.3% vs Bozak 55.8% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 62.4%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 74.7%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 52.7%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
MacKenzie
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
MacKenzie
Bozak
Last 7: MacKenzie 1-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
MacKenzie
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
3
MacKenzie
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Bozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (523)
56.4% (837)
-0.6%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
60.8% (186)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (257)
33.3% (36)
+19.6%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (307).
MacKenzie shoots left. Bozak is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Bozak
Home
54.4% (463)
58.7% (516)
Away
55.3% (338)
54.1% (543)
By Period
MacKenzie
Bozak
P1
54.2%
55.7%
P2
54.0%
53.4%
P3
56.7%
59.7%
OT
33.3%
63.2%
Final 5 min
52.6%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.8%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2016 | 3 | 19:12 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 3 | 17:37 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 4, 2016 | 1 | 12:01 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 26, 2016 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |